In 2008, after spending 250+ hours on the Obama campaign (A number which fluctuates depending on just how self-aggrandizing I feel) I made a prediction. Immediately following BO’s win I turned to my wife and told her that I believed that now the Republican party would split in two, with the tail wagging the dog. After all, you can’t invite the crazies and fundamentalists (Often one and the same) to the table and then just push them away after they’ve suckled at the golden teat of power.
I believed that the party would split for other reason but primarily because I heard the rhetoric from the asshats who didn’t have an intelligent way of saying that they just didn’t want a black guy in office.
Call after call when I was phone banking I was, not exactly shocked, but dismayed at the ignorance of the people who made up the right wing electorate.
I also happened to marry into a family that lived in the bible belt, in the heart of a swing state and one, non-blood, in-law, was as red as red comes. I used to enjoy riling him up as he drank (a case of shitty beer) and puffed generic unflitereds to the point where he blamed the lack of lumber to build adequate schools on the use of said lumber for the creation of abortion clinics.
But I was used to him because years before I lived in the armpit of California: Lancaster. Meth capital of the state, I was told. And home to an inordinate number of self-proclaimed “Patriots”.
If you don’t know about the patriot movement, these are people who try to live off the grid by never using zip codes (a tool of the government) and relinquish their social security number for “9 numbers”. They believe every crazy thing you are afraid that they believe and they are fervent and arduous in those beliefs.
So, I’ve been there. I’ve seen em up close. And I knew what their endgame was. They want to take over the government because they hate…well, just about everyone that isn’t them. So, that was what I believed would happen.
I also believed that, after a while, the country would tire of the lunatics and the right wing party would give rise to a powerful centrist right coalition. A coalition that would commandeer the GOP, start talking sense, and rule for about 20 years.This hasn’t happened yet. Nor will it for a long while. Or maybe sooner but i doubt it.
See, the GOP has nobody to beat Obama. The news will never say that. They need the race to get ratings. This is high pressure, top dollar ball to these clowns. A good (or well ginned up) presidential race is akin to the Yankees vs the Cubs in the series. Or, better: It’s 2003 Red Sox vs The Cubbies. It means moolah.So, they will never admit that there’s no there there.
The reason Herman Cain is surging is that he is the sacrificial lamb. Nobody else of any value really wants it. Nobody wants to be a 21st century Mondale. Cain can’t beat Romney, but the right doesn’t even like Romney. I’m not sure Romney wants to run, really. But at this point he’s pot committed.
But let’s take a look at what happened this week.
Palin? She’s out. Why? Because she knows she can’t win. She’s been out there testing the waters, running up bigger speaking fees. She’s probably looking at 2016 by which time the world will have tired of her permanently.
Rubio? Why has he refused the Veep spot? Because he’s going to run in 2016. In fact, I would expect him to be a big speaker at the convention next year. If he is and it’s Keynote, look out. He’s the chosen one.
But he’s going to have to contend with: Chris Christie. Christie is smart enough to know he can’t win and smarter enough to know that he can’t say that. I don’t buy the “he’s too fat” bullshit. In fact, I think that gets him MORE votes. The trouble with Christie is that he is EXACTLY the kind of center right politician that I am thinking about. And I don’t know if the Tea Party will have run out of gas in six years. Four more years of Obama is going to keep them right where the left wants them: all riled up and ready to make the country scared.
And the GOP machine can’t control Christy. Maybe they can and I’m all wrong about this but I get the feeling that CC is his own man. And that makes the corporations scared.
What I am more interested in is the left in 2016. There is no heir apparent. Biden is no Al Gore. There’s no passing of the torch here.
So, what’s my prediction?
Look at Massachusetts. Watch that race. If Elizabeth “straight talking, rhetoric spewing, bullet point” Warren wins, expect her to become a front runner four years later. I see a strong, all female ticket that I think could be formidable. Ex governor Jennifer Granholm. She’s been out there, fighting the good fight. Not apologizing, making sense and flexing a great politician’s muscle. Both women show humor, grace, knowledge, and understanding of the world stage.
That’s what I’m predicting tonight, October 6th, 2011:Warren/Granholm vs Christy/Rubio. All this will change…tomorrow. But for now….
Update: I’ve been informed that Granholme was born in Canada, so she is ineligible. Sigh….
