So, here we are, heading into the final stretch. And I’ve come to learn one thing: Polls don’t mean anything.
And this is certainly true. After all, there are a tone of mitigating factors. You must consider the source, first off. Then after that, there’s the “bubba vote”; racists who won’t vote for Barack no matter what they tell you. “OS votes” the my-spouse-is-looking-over-myshoulder so I won’t tell him that I AM voting for Barack” and it goes on. Cell phones mean no one is really where they say they are. blah blah. And polls swing, that is their nature.
After Palin made her speech we watched as the momentum flung the polls hard in to the right. But. after the dust settled, everything was just about even going into the debates.
Where are we now, then? Well, interestingly, what I am going to show is the latest polling data from www.fivethirtyeight.com, a website dedicated to compiling the most comprehensive aggregate simulations of all the polls they can get their heads and hands wrapped around. Strangely, a lot of this isn’t all that different than the data before the debate came in.
And what does this mean to me?
Let’s take a look:
In this graphic we can see that, although Barack is pretty much tied for the popular vote, that isn’t what really matters. The thing is, the Obama camp knows, understands and believes this more than Kerry and Gore last times. That’s why the win percentage is 75%. And the electoral swing is huge. But it’s not, NOT, much bigger than it was pre-debate/post-nuclear, campaign on hold, McTombstone goes to Washington meltdown. It probably reflects that meltdown, as well as the Palin deflation. I have to wonder if there will be much correction or if the momentum is with B.O. for the rest of the cycle. Bear in mind that I agree that there will be some shifting back to McAble at some point, I just don’t see it evening out.
Because….
Since I have started volunteering I have come to see just how this ground team works. It’s as though grassroots organizing has caught up with technology and vice versa. There is no way that the other side is prepared for the troops at work. I know there is a lot of lip service being paid to Barack’s small donor fundraising efforts. The idea that the campaign is financed by the people is just true, though. It really isn’t rhetoric. I know this because I am seeing it in action. Not just at the 300+ person camp Obama I attended. Not just at the opening of the main office that expected 150 and saw 1500 arrive unannounced. Not just the people I have seen become Vounteer Coordinators, Team Coordinators, Deputy Field Officers, etc, in a matter of days, all over the country. Some sparked just by a couple of chats I or someone else had with them on Facebook. All of that is buoyed by the phone calls and canvassing that I am seeing happen.
See, Cali adopted the battleground state of Nevada since we know that California will go for Obama. We put our resources into turning Nevada blue. As you may know, it’s generally a red state where we consistently have 2-3 point deficits.
300 volunteers were called for to go TO Nevada and go door to door and find the supporters, register them and get out the vote in that state.
3000 people signed up and have been descending on Nevada like a military operation of grassrootsian proportions.
Look at that map again. Go ahead, blow it up. Look at Nevada.
Light blue. And getting bluer. This is all the work of the ground team. The DFOs, the RFOs, the volunteers, the people.
Might it swing back? Sure. But for right now it’s proving that there is something happening. Just what? Who knows? If the trends continue all Barack would have to do is turn another state blue.
See, we are scheduled to win all the Kerry states. Plus a few others. McCain needs to win all of these battleground states. Or most of them. We just needs to turn a couple. Like Florida. Or Ohio. Or Indiana.
An uphill battle.
But look at this:
Both Ohio AND Indiana are turning blue. Could there be a concerted effort to turn those states? Ya think?
But what of the granddaddy of all hanging chads?
I have a friend in Florida. Facebook put me back in touch with her, she being a person from my youth in Maine. She lives in Florida now and was dismayed at the general red feeling her neighborhood had been projecting.
She went to hear Barack speak. She couldn’t get close. It was a mad crush of like minded people.
She is now a volunteer coordinator.
And look at Florida’s numbers this morning:
That’s sort of crazy, eh?
These polls mean nothing. I know. But when I am giving a new phone banker a primer on what to do when everyone on their list either isn’t home or says, “I’m voting for McCain!” or “We’re Republicans” and hangs up on them, this is the kind of info that keeps spirits up. Because, yes, polls are like tides, but we’re making waves.
On that note.
Back to the phones!
